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Two steps from oblivion
I have a theory, one which could be torn apart with ease, but I will persevere and try to explain it. The theory is that a product survives when it is superseded by something new, and then it is killed off when the newer product is superseded by something newer or better. Make sense? No? Fair enough, I will explain.
Vinyl: it survived the arrival of cassettes, possibly because the sound quality was not excellent from tapes, but when the CD arrived it was eventually killed off. Also, the cassette died as well and please don’t use the resurgence of vinyl as a counter-argument because it is a tiny blip in the grand scheme of things.
Horses: The bicycle came along at roughly the same time as the car, but the latter took longer to become mainstream. When it did horses were no longer used for common travel despite the fact that they had largely co-existed with bicycles.
Phones: The landline was all we had and then the mobile phone came along. Landlines continued alongside mobile phones and then the smartphone arrived. The mobile operators caught up, slashed prices over time and how often do we use our landlines today? We don’t. Our parents will call us using one and we need the line for broadband, but the reality is that the landline is dead.
So, what else will suffer the ‘two steps’ fate?
Watches: This is an oddity because I suspect that quartz watches will fall to the side and be replaced by smartwatches. Mechanical watches will likely continue, but in numbers that are largely insignificant in comparison to the wider watch market.
Computers: Multiple steps have already taken place consisting of tablets, smartphones, smartwatches, Chromebooks and (in the future) foldable phones. It blows apart my silly theory, but the desktop computer is without doubt a time-limited product.
Cars: They will not die in the near future, but the combustion engine will. Electric cars are here today and are moving up the market relatively quickly, but they need to change. When battery technology reaches a level where they are completely practical to use the new electric car will take over and the car we know today will die quickly.
I could try to think of more, but time is short today. However, it does seem that there is a vague pattern that fits the two steps from oblivion idea.